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Taking Action on Pull Incentives: Estimating the Return on Investment for Incentivising New Antimicrobials in Denmark

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Key Messages:

  • Antimicrobial Resistance is a growing health concern, both globally and in Denmark, and is associated with an estimated 2,500 deaths in Denmark each year.

  • The pipeline of new antimicrobials has grown increasingly thin and is inadequate to provide the vital new medicines that are needed to treat an increasing number of drug-resistant infections.

  • Through working towards establishing a “pull incentive” scheme, Denmark, alongside other countries in the EU and globally, can play an important role in reinvigorating the antimicrobial pipeline and ensuring patients have access to adequate treatments.

  • We model that a scheme aimed at incentivising the development of and securing access to 18 new antimicrobials over 30 years would:

    • Save 350 lives, generate €300 million in benefits and give a Return on Investment of 3.5:1 over a 10 year period.

    • Save 6,700 lives, generate €4.7 billion in benefits and give a Return on Investment of 16.5:1 over a 30 year period.

  • Such a scheme would cost Denmark an estimated €33 million per drug over a 10 year period, representing its “fair share” of a G7 + European Union pull incentive.


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